Activity at risk and employment plummeting: Kicillof's take on the "Milei effect"

The economic situation in the province of Buenos Aires is very complex, and even Axel Kicillof 's government admits it. While they don't attribute this grim situation to their own mistakes but rather to the national government's management, the figures presented by the officials themselves are stark.

"It's impossible for the production chain to live like this, and something similar is happening to households, which are beginning to be left out of the game," said the Minister of Production of Buenos Aires Province, Augusto Costa, in a press conference with the head of ARBA, Cristian Girard.

According to the provincial government's snapshot, for example, economic activity fell 0.7% between January and May 2023 and the same period this year . Far from improving, this situation has been on a downward spiral so far this year, although the province warns that the figures have become more worrying in recent weeks.

According to official figures, there was a 0.4% drop in the second week of August , a trend that officials believe could continue. They even note that provincial activity fell 0.7% in the January-May period of this year, compared to the same period in 2023.

Given this scenario, the provincial administration maintains that Construction and Commerce are the sectors most affected in the January-May 2023 comparison with the same period in 2025, with the former experiencing a 23.1% drop and Commerce a 6% decline.

In this context, they also show the status of employment levels and business closures nationwide. Between November 2023 and May 2025, 15,564 productive units (including individuals and companies producing goods and services) were lost , from 512,357 to 496,793. There was also a downward trend in the number of jobs. It fell from 9,857,173 in November two years ago to 9,633,636 last May.

The survey also focuses on the situation of SMEs. Based on data from the Buenos Aires Guarantee Fund (FOGABA), the level of debt payment arrears doubled between December of last year and last July . It went from 0.9% to 1.9% during that period, which also saw a significant increase in the amount of outstanding loans. From $1,234.7 million at the end of 2024, it rose to $4,206.6 million in mid-2025.

Amidst this situation in the province of Buenos Aires itself, and given the growing alarm among small and medium-sized businesses in the province of Buenos Aires, Governor Axel Kicillof announced a series of measures last Thursday aimed at the SME sector .

This is a package of financial assistance, simplification, and tax relief measures to "boost production and support" this industrial segment, which, according to the official , "is currently at risk due to the national government's economic policies."

For families in Buenos Aires , the situation is also complex. Official data indicate that the current spending on utilities—water, gas, electricity, and public transportation—is at one of its highest levels since December of last year, representing 12.6% of the household budget in August . This ratio has remained more or less stable over the last three months (including 12.7% in June and 13.1% in July), but is showing an upward trend, down from 10.2% in April and 11.7% in December of last year.

The province of Buenos Aires also uses the BAPRO Consumer Index as a reference, which, as of last July, reflected a 9% drop . Positive trends were seen in segments such as Electrical and Computers (52%) and Cellular Telephony (50%), although sharp declines were seen in sectors such as Hardware and Bazaar (28%), Supermarkets (29%), and Fuels (30%).

The movements in basic products such as meat and milk are also taken as parameters. The Kicillof government's report states that while per capita meat consumption was 59 kilos in 2015, it rose to 49 kilos in the second half of 2025, while milk consumption increased from 217 liters to 171 liters.